Seeing the Future: How to Build Basic Forecasting Models
- 3h 33m
- Tam Bang Vu
- Business Expert Press
- 2015
This book guides you through an enjoyable journey, step by step, into the future. A team of fictional characters is introduced to share their learning and working experiences with the readers. In the beginning of the book, you will take the first step by learning the most basic models for one-period forecasts based on past performance of a market. You will also learn how to evaluate your newly built models. Next, you will progress further into intermediate-level models, including multi-period forecasts based on past performance of a market or based on an external factor. It also introduces interval forecasting, which allows you to obtain a range of forecast values instead of a single value in the future.
In the second half, you will familiarize yourself with advanced models that provide multi-period forecasts based on multiple internal or external factors. Toward the end, you will learn several applied models in business and economics that will facilitate you with practical applications related to real life situations. The last chapter summarizes all models introduced in this book and provides a table of references for finding the most important concepts, tables, and figures in the book so that you can recall every step of your adventure.
About the Author
Tam Bang Vu holds an MM from Manhattan School of Music and a PhD in economics from the University of Hawaii-Manoa. She is an associate professor and the economics chair at the College of Business and Economics, as well as the interim director of the MA program in China-US Relations; both are at the University of Hawaii-Hilo. She had been a sole proprietor of various businesses for more than twenty years before becoming an instructor of macroeconomics and quantitative methods, including forecasting and econometrics, at the university.
In this Book
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Introduction
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Elementary Time Series Techniques
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Evaluations and Adjustments
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Intermediate Time Series Techniques
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Simple Linear Regressions
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Multiple Linear Regressions
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Advanced Time Series Techniques
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Business Models
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Economic Models
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Business Cycles and Rates of Change
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Conclusion
