Scenario Planning in Organizations: How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios

• Offers a comprehensive review of both the theory and practice of scenario planning
• The only scenario planning book to address scenario implementation and assessment
• Includes a case study to illustrate how the scenario planning system is applied in the real world

Scenario planning helps leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment.

This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do -- he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project.

Using a case study based on a real scenario project, Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system -- project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation, and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking.

About the Author

THOMAS J. CHERMACK has studied and practiced scenario planning for over 15 years. His initial interest in scenario planning was due its unique combination of analysis and creativity in exploring difficult and complex issues. Tom is motivated to challenge status quo thinking and help people see things differently.

Tom consults on scenario projects through his company Chermack Scenarios with organizations worldwide, including Saudi Aramco, Motorola, Directlink Technologies, Cargill, Emerson Process, General Mills, Centura Health, and others. Many of these projects have yielded profound insights for their organization leaders resulting in significant re-perceptions of their organizations, environments, and capabilities. In consulting with world-class organizations, Tom has seen the utility and effectiveness of scenario planning firsthand.

An assistant professor in organizational performance and change at Colorado State University, Tom teaches courses on scenario planning, human expertise, analysis in organizations, change management, and organization development. With a focus on the theoretical foundations and outcomes of scenario planning, Tom's research has won awards of excellence from the Academy of Human Resource Development and has appeared in scholarly journals as well as books and magazines. Much of his published work on the theory and practice of scenario planning includes numerous studies that document its benefits.

Tom is also the founder and director of the Scenario Planning Institute at Colorado State University. The Scenario Planning Institute (the first of its kind in the United States) is a hub of activity related to scenario planning, including research, consulting with organizations worldwide, a program for certifying scenario planning facilitators, seminars, and other activities that link Colorado State University to organizations and members of the community, both locally and internationally.

Applied disciplines like scenario planning require both reflection and action—reflection, for understanding how scenario planning works and how it can be improved, and action, for putting new knowledge to use. Tom has made it a point of his career to study and apply scenario planning. An emphasis on both inquiry and application has provided a unique perspective, and a wealth of experiences that come together in this book.

Tom's experiences with the research and practice of scenario planning have yielded invitations to speak at organizations around the world, as well as present seminars, workshops, and keynote addresses.