Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting
- 6h 4m
- Steve Morlidge, Steve Player
- John Wiley & Sons (US)
- 2010
The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe.
It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future.
Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as:
- What makes a good forecast?
- What period should a forecast cover?
- How frequently should it be updated?
- What information should it contain?
- What is the best way to produce a forecast?
- How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?
- How should a forecast be used?
- How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?
- How accurate does it need to be?
- How should you deal with risk and uncertainty
- What is the best way to organize a forecast process?
- Do you need multiple forecasts?
- What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?
Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management.
In this Book
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Future Ready—How to Master Business Forecasting
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Foreword
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Preface
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Why Change? Everyone Knows the Trouble I’ve Seen
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Forecasting Disease, the Symptoms and the Remedy
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Mastering Purpose – the Cassandra Paradox
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Mastering Time – Delay and Decision
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Mastering Models – Mapping the Future
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Mastering Measurement – Learning to Love Error
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Mastering Risks – How the Paranoid Survive
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Mastering Process – The Mother of Good Fortune
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Implementation – Beginnings and Endings
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Beyond Forecasting – The Biggest Barrier
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Beyond Budgeting – A New Management Model?
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Conclusion – Reconnection
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Design Principles – A Summary
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Important Concepts in Systems and Cybernetics
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References
